Mechanisms for Enhancing the Resilience of Grazing-Based Livestock Production Systems under Climate Change: A Case of Kermanshah Province

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

• Shiva Nejatian ¹
• Hossein Shabanali Fami ²
• Naser Motee ³

¹ Department of Agricultural Management and Development, Faculty of Agriculture, College of Agriculture & Natural Resources, University of Tehran,,, Karaj, Iran,.

² Department of Agricultural Management and Development, Faculty of Agriculture, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran

³ Department of Agricultural Management and Development, Faculty of Agriculture, College of Agriculture & Natural Resources, University of Tehran, , Karaj, Iran,

Abstract

Keywords

• livestock production systems
• Grazing-Based
• climate change
• Resilience

Main Subjects

• Animal management and health

Extended Abstract

Introduction

    Livestock production systems, particularly grazing-based systems, play a vital role in providing animal protein, food security, and sustainable livelihoods for the growing global population. However, these systems face numerous challenges, including increasing demand for animal products, climate change, market fluctuations, economic instability, and limited natural resources. In such circumstances, resilience is a critical factor for the growth and sustainable development of these systems. Therefore, identifying methods and strategies to enhance resilience is essential for the sustainable development of these systems.

Materials and Methods

The present study is a type of survey research that, in terms of approach, falls under quantitative research and, in terms of purpose, is classified as applied research. The statistical population consisted of 140 experts and specialists who were selected based on criteria such as research background, executive experience, and familiarity with livestock systems using the census method. Of these experts, 131 individuals (response rate of 93 percent) completed the research questionnaire. The data were collected using a researcher-made questionnaire administered through in-person distribution at the workplace, via email, and common messaging apps, along with explanations of the response method and research objectives to the respondents. The content validity of the questionnaire was confirmed by experts in the field of Natural Resources and Livestock Management of Kermanshah Province and members of the Department of Agricultural Management and Development at the University of Tehran. The reliability of the instrument was assessed using internal consistency, with Cronbach’s alpha equal to 0.89. The findings, considering the nature of the conceptual model, were analyzed using confirmatory factor analysis in SmartPLS 3 software.

The statistical population of the study included 140 livestock experts and specialists who were selected based on criteria such as research background, executive experience, and familiarity with livestock systems. The data collection tool was a researcher-developed questionnaire. The validity of the questionnaire was assessed using content validity and discriminant validity methods. Content validity was confirmed using feedback from a number of natural resources experts in Kermanshah province and faculty members of the Agricultural Management and Development Department at the University of Tehran, while discriminant validity was confirmed using the Average Variance Extracted (AVE). Additionally, the reliability of the questionnaire was calculated using Cronbach's alpha, which was above 0.7, indicating acceptable reliability of the research instrument. In this study, purposive sampling was used to collect information from the target population of livestock experts and specialists. The respondents' selection criteria were based on their work experience, expertise in grazing and rangeland-based systems, climate change, and sustainability indicators of these systems. Approximately 140 livestock experts and specialists in the province were estimated, and questionnaires were distributed. Ultimately, 131 questionnaires were collected. The software used for data analysis were SPSS27 and Smart PLS3. Data analysis was conducted using second-order confirmatory factor analysis with the Partial Least Squares (PLS2) approach^.

Results and Discussion

 The results of the study revealed that economic mechanisms had the highest impact (β = 0.786), followed by environmental (β = 0.652), managerial (β = 0.620), legal (β = 0.609), technical (β = 0.587), and finally social factors (β = 0.529), which had the most significant influence on the resilience of livestock systems in the province. Based on the findings, the most important sustainability mechanisms for grazing-based livestock systems in Kermanshah province were identified as economic mechanisms, including: diversifying the livelihoods of livestock farmers with a factor loading of (0.808), improving access to credit (0.775), and increasing insurance support (0.713) as key strategies. These mechanisms enhance the resilience of livestock systems by reducing dependence on a single income source, strengthening the economic capacity of livestock farmers, and protecting against losses. Environmental mechanisms, such as cultivating forage crops compatible with the region's climatic and low-water conditions (with a factor loading of 0.757) and implementing watershed management practices to store rainfall (0.754), were also identified as important factors in the sustainability of these systems. These strategies contribute to sustainable forage supply and water resource conservation. Although social mechanisms, such as the participation of livestock farmers in rangeland management projects and innovation transfer programs (0.871), ranked lower in this study, they are essential for creating a supportive social framework. Understanding these mechanisms can help develop practical solutions to improve the resilience and sustainability of these systems.

Conclusion

The results of this study indicate that the sustainability of grazing-based livestock systems in Kermanshah province requires a comprehensive and multidimensional approach. To enhance the resilience and sustainability of these systems, the following actions are proposed: diversifying the livelihoods of livestock farmers through the establishment and support of processing industries and rural tourism, facilitating access to low-interest credit and support funds during crises such as droughts, expanding insurance coverage for livestock and rangelands, promoting the cultivation of drought-resistant forage crops, and implementing watershed management practices to store rainwater. Additionally, promoting integrated crop-livestock systems, supporting cooperatives, providing technical training, developing sustainable rangeland laws, and incorporating climate considerations into regional development programs, along with financial incentives for nomadic livestock farmers, can contribute to increasing the resilience and sustainability of these systems.

Author Contributions

Conceptualization, H.SH. F. and SH.N.; methodology, H.SH. F and SH.N.; software, H.SH. F. and SH.N.; validation, H.SH. F. and N.M.; formal analysis, H.SH. F. and SH.N.; investigation, SH.N.; resources, SH.N.; data curation, SH.N.; writing original draft preparation, H.SH. F. and SH.N. writing review and editing, H.SH. F., SH.N.  and N.M..; visualization, SH.N.; supervision, H.SH. F. and N.M.; project administration, H.SH. F.; funding acquisition, H.SH. F.

Data Availability Statement

The datasets generated and analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank all participants of the present study. The Directorate of Research and Technology at the University of Tehran has also supported this research, which is highly acknowledged.

Ethical considerations

The authors avoided data fabrication, falsification, plagiarism, and misconduct.

Conflict of interest

   The author declares no conflict of interest.